Variables | Estimates | S.E | t | p | AIC | BIC | LL | Ljung-Box | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statistics | p | ||||||||
ARFIMA (2,0.462,1) (1,0.379,1)12 for HFRS incidence series between January 2004 and July 2023 | |||||||||
AR1 | 0.752 | 0.138 | 5.459 |  < 0.001 | 2574.856 | 2609.451 | − 1277.43 | 0.004 | 0.951 |
AR2 | − 0.397 | 0.076 | − 5.197 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
MA1 | 0.285 | 0.152 | 1.875 | 0.031 | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
SAR1 | 0.966 | 0.04 | 24.204 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
SMA1 | 0.929 | 0.079 | 11.818 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
Pulse change | − 82.137 | 138.167 | − 0.594 | 0.552 |  |  |  |  |  |
ARFIMA (1,0,1) (1,0.06,2)12 for rabies incidence series between January 2004 and July 2023 | |||||||||
AR1 | 0.941 | 0.024 | 38.618 |  < 0.001 | 1518.222 | 1552.818 | − 749.111 | 0.662 | 0.416 |
MA1 | 0.417 | 0.085 | 4.916 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
SAR1 | 0.914 | 0.064 | 14.309 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
SMA1 | 0.649 | 0.207 | 3.135 | 0.002 | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
SMA2 | − 0.163 | 0.079 | − 2.075 | 0.038 |  |  |  |  |  |
Pulse change | − 2.038 | 15.773 | − 0.129 | 0.897 |  |  |  |  |  |
ARFIMA (0,0,1) (0,0.072,0)12 for dengue fever incidence series between January 2004 and July 2023 | |||||||||
MA1 | − 0.59 | 0.049 | − 11.923 |  < 0.001 | 3547.62 | 3568.38 | − 1767.81 | 0.705 | 0.401 |
Pulse change | − 467.039 | 542.679 | − 0.861 | 0.389 |  |  |  |  |  |
ARFIMA (1,-0.732,(1,2,3,4,6) (1,0.436,1)12 for HB incidence series between January 2004 and July 2023 | |||||||||
AR1 | 0.993 | 0.011 | 90.681 |  < 0.001 | 3037.48 | 3085.92 | − 1504.74 | 0.009 | 0.926 |
MA1 | − 0.651 | 0.103 | − 6.301 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
MA2 | − 0.419 | 0.108 | − 3.874 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
MA3 | − 0.399 | 0.086 | − 4.66 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
MA4 | − 0.22 | 0.09 | 2.447 | 0.014 |  |  |  |  |  |
MA6 | − 0.12 | 0.066 | − 1.825 | 0.035 |  |  |  |  |  |
SAR1 | − 0.828 | 0.347 | − 2.386 | 0.017 |  |  |  |  |  |
SMA1 | − 0.8 | 0.367 | − 2.183 | 0.029 |  |  |  |  |  |
Pulse change | 2190.13 | 579.051 | 3.783 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
ARFIMA (0,0,2) (2,0.163,1)12 for Leptospirosis incidence series between January 2004 and July 2023 | |||||||||
MA1 | − 0.398 | 0.068 | − 5.901 |  < 0.001 | 1830.26 | 1864.86 | 905.13 | 0.064 | 0.8 |
MA2 | − 0.143 | 0.068 | − 2.119 | 0.034 |  |  |  |  |  |
SAR1 | 0.688 | 0.135 | 5.10 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
SAR2 | 0.224 | 0.11 | 2.034 | 0.022 | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
SMA1 | 0.40 | 0.163 | 2.452 | 0.014 | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Pulse change | 6.882 | 15.675 | 0.439 | 0.661 | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
ARFIMA (2,− 0.713,0) (1,0.29,1)12 for malaria incidence series between January 2004 and July 2023 | |||||||||
MA1 | 1.654 | 0.188 | 8.785 |  < 0.001 | 1430.06 | 1457.91 | − 706.031 | 0.001 | 0.971 |
MA2 | − 0.659 | 0.183 | − 3.605 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
SAR1 | − 0.996 | 0.01 | − 98.859 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
SMA1 | − 0.985 | 0.024 | − 40.556 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
Pulse change | − 83.131 | 70.378 | − 1.181 | 0.238 |  |  |  |  |  |
ARFIMA (4,0,0) (1,0,0)12 for Schistosomiasis incidence series between January 2004 and July 2023 | |||||||||
AR1 | 1.069 | 0.06 | 17.678 |  < 0.001 | 3693.18 | 3717.4 | − 1839.59 | 0.152 | 0.696 |
AR2 | − 0.419 | 0.066 | − 6.359 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
AR4 | 0.15 | 0.043 | 3.503 |  < 0.001 |  |  |  |  |  |
SAR1 | 0.143 | 0.063 | 2.26 | 0.024 | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Pulse change | − 213.922 | 419.083 | − 0.511 | 0.61 |  |  |  |  |  |