Fig. 11

a The incidence (daily new cases; blue) data time series and a 7-day lagged moving average (brown) plotted for new cases of COVID-19 in England from Feb 19 to Aug 10 (raw data to Aug 16), 2020. b As in a but plots for daily COVID-19 deaths rather than incidence. c Maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) fits (red plot) of the 4 basic SCLAIV parameters (i.e., kappa, P_suc, I_0, C_0) to the 7-day lagged moving average incidence time series (blue) from March 1 to April 30 (first 60 points). d, e As in c but in addition to 4 basic SCLAIV parameters, progressively including: d 4 social distancing and 3 surveillance switching function parameters (SocDist_steep, Surveil_steep, and Surveil_on fixed at 3, 2, and 0 respectively) and e 4 social relaxation switching function parameters (SocRel_steep fixed at 3). f As in e, but now fitting over the full 163 incidence points. f, g A combined MLE fit of the incidence (g1) and daily mortality (g2) time series from April 1 to Aug 10 of the 4 basic SCLAIV parameters plus social distancing, surveillance, social relaxation and switching function parameters, with the MLE forms of these latter four functions presented in plots g3. See Fig. D.11 in Appendix D, Additional file 1, for switching parameter values. Data source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/