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Table 4 Additional predictive power for all CVD by the ASCVD risk enhancersa: Tehran lipid and glucose study (1999–2016)

From: The risk and added values of the atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk enhancers on prediction of cardiovascular events: Tehran lipid and glucose study

 

Median 10-year follow-up

Median 15-year follow-up

ACC/AHA model HR (95%)

p

Enhanced model HR (95%)

p

ACC/AHA model HR (95%)

p

Enhanced model HR (95%)

p

Model components 1

 ASCVD-PCE Score

1.08 (1.05–1.12)

< 0.001

1.08 (1.05–1.12)

< 0.001

1.07 (1.04–1.10)

< 0.001

1.07 (1.04–1.10)

< 0.001

 Family history premature CVD

  

1.54 (1.05–2.24)

0.025

  

1.42 (1.05–1.93)

0.02

Model predictive performance indexes 1

 C-indexb (95% CI)

0.6 (0.56–0.63)

< 0.001

0.6 (0.54–0.66)

< 0.001

0.59 (0.57–0.62)

< 0.001

0.59 (0.55–0.63)

< 0.001

 IDI (95% CIs)

  

0.002 (− 0.005–0.01)

0.56

  

0.001 (− 0.002–0.03)

0.57

Model components 2

 ASCVD-PCE Score

1.08 (1.05–1.12)

< 0.001

1.08 (1.05–1.12)

< 0.001

1.07 (1.04–1.10)

< 0.001

1.07 (1.04–1.10)

< 0.001

 METS

  

1.45 (1.08–1.95)

0.013

  

1.45 (1.15–1.82)

0.002

Model predictive performance indexes 2

 C-indexb (95% CI)

0.6 (0.56–0.63)

< 0.001

0.6 (0.56–0.64)

< 0.001

0.59 (0.57–0.62)

< 0.001

0.59 (0.57–0.62)

< 0.001

 IDI (95% CIs)

  

0.001 (− 0.005–0.008)

0.73

  

0.002 (− 0.004–0.008)

0.55

Model components 3

ASCVD- PCE Score

1.08 (1.05–1.12)

< 0.001

1.08 (1.05–1.12)

< 0.001

1.07 (1.04–1.10)

< 0.001

1.07 (1.04–1.10)

< 0.001

 High WC

  

1.30 (0.97–1.75)

0.08

  

1.32 (1.05–1.66)

0.02

Model predictive performance indexes 3

 C-indexb (95% CI)

0.6 (0.56–0.63)

< 0.001

0.6 (0.53–0.66)

< 0.001

0.59 (0.57–0.62)

< 0.001

0.59 (0.56–0.62)

< 0.001

 IDI (95% CIs)

  

0.002 (− 0.003–0.007)

0.48

  

0.002 (− 0.003–0.007)

0.5

Model components 4

 ASCVD-PCE Score

1.08 (1.05–1.12)

< 0.001

1.08 (1.04–1.11)

< 0.001

1.07 (1.04–1.10)

< 0.001

1.06 (1.04–1.09)

< 0.001

 High blood pressure

  

1.34 (1.0–1.82)

0.05

  

1.38 (1.09–1.75)

0.007

Model predictive performance indexes 4

 C-indexb (95% CI)

0.6 (0.56–0.63)

< 0.001

0.6 (0.55–0.64)

< 0.001

0.59 (0.57–0.62)

< 0.001

0.59 (0.58–0.60)

< 0.001

 IDI (95% CIs)

  

0.002 (− 0.004–0.007)

0.57

  

0.002 (− 0.0.008)

0.41

  1. ACC/AHA American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association, ASCVD atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, Mets metabolic syndrome, GDM gestational diabetes, HDP hypertensive disorders pregnancy, CVD cardiovascular disease, AUC area under the curve, IDI integrated discrimination improvement, CI confidence interval, p p-value
  2. aSignificant ASCVD risk factors
  3. bC-index: Concordance index. The difference between C-indices was not significant
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Journal of Translational Medicine

ISSN: 1479-5876

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