Fig. 1

Discrimination capacity of the multivariate logistic regression model in the derivation and validation cohort. A Diagram of the study. B Receiver-operating characteristic curve of the 3-predictor model (donor age, female to male transplant and graft MNC dose), the final 4-predictor model (donor age, female to male transplant, graft MNC dose and graft CD8 dose), and the simplified score system in the derivation cohort. The C-statistics were 0.719 (95% CI 0.630–0.808; p < 0.001), 0.699 (95% CI 0.613–0.785; p < 0.001), and 0.718 (95% CI 0.630–0.807; p < 0.001), respectively. C Receiver-operating characteristic curve of the final 4-predictor model and simplified score system in the validation group. The C-statistic was 0.635 (95% CI 0.534–0.737; p = 0.006), and 0.601 (95% CI 0.499–0.703; p = 0.039) respectively. D Calibration plot in the derivation cohort (Hosmer–Lemeshow test, p = .702). E Calibration plot in the validation cohort (Hosmer–Lemeshow test, p = .261)