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Table 3 Performance metrics for prediction models in the validation cohort

From: Advancing polytrauma care: developing and validating machine learning models for early mortality prediction

 

Random Forest

Neural Network

XGBoost

Internal validation cohort

 Accuracy

0.83 (0.81–0.86)

0.82 (0.79–0.84)

0.70 (0.67–0.73)

 Sensitivity

0.78 (0.72–0.84)

0.80 (0.74–0.85)

0.85 (0.79–0.90)

 Specificity

0.78 (0.75–0.81)

0.75 (0.72–0.79)

0.75 (0.72–0.78)

 PPV

0.51 (0.46–0.60)

0.49 (0.44–0.58)

0.50 (0.45–0.60)

 NPV

0.93 (0.90–0.94)

0.93 (0.90–0.94)

0.95 (0.92–0.95)

 F1 score

0.56 (0.52–0.60)

0.51 (0.47–0.56)

0.57 (0.52–0.61)

External validation cohort

 Accuracy

0.97 (0.96–0.98)

0.88 (0.86–0.89)

0.96 (0.94–0.96)

 Sensitivity

0.92 (0.87–0.95)

0.82 (0.76–0.87)

0.92 (0.87–0.95)

 Specificity

0.95 (0.94–0.96)

0.79 (0.77–0.81)

0.93 (0.92–0.95)

 PPV

0.71 (0.66–0.81)

0.34 (0.32–0.44)

0.65 (0.61–0.77)

 NPV

0.99 (0.98–0.99)

0.97 (0.96–0.97)

0.99 (0.98–0.99)

 F1 score

0.86 (0.82–0.90)

0.43 (0.37–0.46)

0.81 (0.76–0.91)

  1. Bold values indicate the best-performing model under the same evaluation criteria
  2. 95% confidence intervals are shown in parentheses
  3. PPV positive predictive value; NPV negative predictive value