Table 1 Default point estimates of parameters for fitting and simulating a basic COVID-19 SCLAIV outbreak on \([0,t_\text{est}]\)). Also see Fig. 2
From: A versatile web app for identifying the drivers of COVID-19 epidemics
Parameter | Symbol (\(\hbox {math}^{\dag }\)) | Value | Source/Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
Transmission | |||
Contact \(\hbox {rate}^\mathsection\) | \(\kappa\) | Estimated | Incidence \(\hbox {data}^{*}\) |
Nominal/effective pop size | \(N_0=N_\text{eff}\) | \(10^5-10^7\) | \(\hbox {Varies}^\P\) |
Asymptomatic reduction | \(\varepsilon\) | 0.1 | Unknown: see [12] |
Surveillance | \(\delta _\text{sur}\) | 0.5 | \(\hbox {Unknown}^{**}\) |
Isolation/treatment | \(\delta _\text{iso}\) | 0.35 | \(\hbox {Varies}^{\ddag }\) |
Contact rate reduction | \(\delta _\text{con}\) | 0.1 | \(\hbox {Varies}^{*\ddag }\) |
Progression | |||
Thwart period | \(\pi _\text{thw}\) | 1 | Normalised |
Succumb \(\hbox {period}^\mathsection\) | \(\pi _\text{suc}\) | Estimated | Incidence \(\hbox {data}^{*}\) |
Latent period | \(\pi _\text{lat}\) | 4\(^{\dag \dag }\) days | |
Asymptomatic period | \(\pi _\text{asy}\) | 5\(^{\dag \dag }\) days | |
Symptomatic/recovery period | \(\pi _\text{rec}\) | 7\(^{\ddag \ddag }\) days | [12] |
Immune period | \(\pi _\text{imm}\) | 1000 days | \(\hbox {Unknown}^\parallel\) |
Disease-induced mort./virulence | \(\alpha ^{\dag \ddag }\) | Estimated | Mortality data |
Initial values | |||
Initial susceptible | \(S_0\) | \(S_0=N_{\text{eff}}-C_0-L_0-A_0-I_0-V_0\) | |
Initial contact | \(C_0\) | Estimated | Incidence \(\hbox {data}^{*}\) |
Initial latent | \(L_0\) | \(\left( \frac{\pi _\text{asy} }{\pi _\text{rec}}\right) G I_0\) | Requires \(G{^+}\) |
Initial asymptomatic | \(A_0\) | \(\left( \frac{\pi _\text{lat}\pi _\text{asy} }{\pi _\text{rec}^2}\right) G^2 I_0\) | Requires \(G{^+}\) |
Initial symptomatic | \(I_0\) | Estimated | Incidence \(\hbox {data}^{*}\) |
Initial immune | \(V_0=0\) | SARS-CoV-2 immunologically naïve pop | |