Fig. 5

a MLE of the basic SCLAIV parameters fitted to the first 14 days (March 1 to 14) of Israeli incidence data only (Wt:Incidence/Deaths=0). b. MLE values obtained from this fit. Note, the mortality simulation does not rise to a single individual since no COVID-19 deaths were recorded in Israel during the first two weeks of March. Compare this fit with the same fitting procedure applied to the whole of March, as depicted in Fig. 3, where we see a rising daily death total in the second half of March