Fig. 3

An incomplete view (upper left corner) of the optimisation page of the NMB-DASA web app. The leftmost (purple) panel is where variables to be included in the optimisation are checked. The next (pink) panel to its right is where the details of the optimisation procedure are entered: in this case the Fit Range is 31 and Wt:Incidence/Deaths is zero, implying that only the incidence curve is being fit. In this pink panel we see the MLE took 267 iterations to converge, and the absolute log-likelihood error (369 after truncating beyond the decimal point; see Eq. C.2, Additional file 1) is provided in the Error window. The incidence and mortality time series and simulated solutions over the interval [0,35] are plotted in top part of the white panel. Below these are MLE and input values of the basic SCLAIV parameters used in the simulation, apart from the mortality rate (i.e., virulence: for this fit has been set to 0.001) that on a larger view of the Opt Page appears just to right of the Patient Isolation window. All switching functions are set to the Constant mode (red rather than green switch values), with indicated values in this case provided rather than fitted