Skip to main content
Fig. 10 | Journal of Translational Medicine

Fig. 10

From: A versatile web app for identifying the drivers of COVID-19 epidemics

Fig. 10

a The incidence (daily new cases; blue) data time series and a 7-day lagged moving average (brown) plotted for new cases of COVID-19 in South Africa from March 6 to Aug 8 (raw data to Aug 14), 2020. b As in a but plots for daily COVID-19 deaths rather than incidence. c Maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) fits (red plot) of the 4 basic SCLAIV parameters (i.e., kappa, P_suc, I_0, C_0) to the 7-day lagged moving average incidence time series (blue) from April 1 to June 30 (91 points). d–f As in c but fitting over the interval April 1 to August 8 and, in addition to 4 basic SCLAIV parameters, progressively including: d 4 social distancing switching function parameters (SocDist_steep fixed at 3); e 3 surveillance switching function parameters (onset time, Surveil_on, fixed at 0; Surveil_steep, fixed at 2); and, f 4 social relaxation switching function parameters (SocRel_steep fixed at 3). g A combined MLE fit of the incidence (g1) and daily mortality (g2) time series from April 1 to Aug 8 of the 4 basic SCLAIV parameters plus social distancing, surveillance, social relaxation and switching function parameters, with the MLE forms of these latter four functions presented in plots g3 See Fig. D.6 in Appendix D, Additional file 1, for switching parameter values. Incidence and mortality data source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/south-africa?country=~ZAF

Back to article page