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Table 3 Additional predictive power for Hard CVD by the ASCVD risk enhancersa: Tehran lipid and glucose study (1999–2016)

From: The risk and added values of the atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk enhancers on prediction of cardiovascular events: Tehran lipid and glucose study

 

ACC/AHA model

HR (95%)

p

Enhanced model

HR (95%)

p

Median 10-year follow-up

Model componentsb 1

 ASCVD-PCE Score

0.96 (0.83–1.10)

0.53

0.95 (0.82–1.10)

0.46

 HDP

  

5.35 (1.22–23.38)

0.026

Model predictive performance indexes 1

 C-indexc (95% CI)

0.52 (0.42–0.61)

< 0.001

0.56 (0.49–0.63)

< 0.001

 IDI (95% CIs)

  

0.006 (− 0.03–0.04)

0.74

Model componentsb 2

 ASCVD-PCE Score

0.96 (0.83–1.10)

0.53

0.96 (0.84–1.11)

0.63

 GDM/Macrosomia

  

3.18 (1.05–9.65)

0.041

Model predictive performance indexes 2

 C-indexc (95% CI)

0.52 (0.42–0.61)

< 0.001

0.60 (0.48–0.74)

< 0.001

 IDI (95% CIs)

  

0.0007 (− 0.03–0.03)

0.97

Model components 3

 ASCVD-PCE Score

1.09 (1.03–1.14)

0.001

1.08 (1.02–1.14)

0.004

 High blood pressure

  

1.53 (0.94–2.48)

0.08

Model predictive performance indexes 3

 C-indexc (95% CI)

0.60 (0.58–0.62)

< 0.001

0.62 (0.49–0.74)

< 0.001

 IDI (95% CIs)

  

0.001 (− 0.002–0.006)

0.55

Median 15-year follow-up

Model components 1

 ASCVD-PCE Score

1.06 (1.03–1.10)

0.001

1.06 (1.025–1.11)

0.001

 METS

  

1.47 (1.05–2.06)

0.026

Model predictive performance indexes 1

 C-indexc (95% CI)

0.58 (0.55–0.62)

< 0.001

0.58 (0.51–0.65)

< 0.001

 IDI (95% CIs)

  

0.003 (− 0.003–0.01)

0.36

Model components 2

ASCVD-PCE Score

1.06 (1.03–1.10)

0.001

1.06 (1.02–1.10)

0.001

 High WC

  

1.40 (1.0–1.95)

0.05

Model predictive performance indexes 2

 C-indexc (95% CI)

0.58 (0.55–0.62)

< 0.001

0.58 (0.51–0.65)

< 0.001

 IDI (95% CIs)

  

0.002 (− 0.003–0.007)

0.46

Model components 3

 ASCVD-PCE Score

1.06 (1.03–1.10)

0.001

1.06 (1.02–1.10)

0.004

 High blood pressure

  

1.52 (1.07–2.15)

0.02

Model predictive performance indexes 3

 C-indexc (95% CI)

0.58 (0.55–0.62)

< 0.001

0.58 (0.51–0.65)

< 0.001

 IDI (95% CIs)

  

0.002 (− 0.004–00.008)

0.45

  1. ACC/AHA American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association, ASCVD atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, Mets metabolic syndrome, GDM gestational diabetes, HDP hypertensive disorders pregnancy, CVD cardiovascular disease, AUC area under the curve, IDI integrated discrimination improvement, CI confidence interval, p p-value
  2. aSignificant ASCVD risk factors
  3. bOnly among women
  4. cC-index: Concordance index. The difference between C-indices was not significant
  5. dC-index: indicate the discriminative ability of the model
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Journal of Translational Medicine

ISSN: 1479-5876

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