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Table 3 The clinical performance of the risk assessment tool for 6-year prediction of chronic cardio-metabolic disorders and each of the separate diseases: Tehran Lipid and glucose study

From: External validation of the European risk assessment tool for chronic cardio-metabolic disorders in a Middle Eastern population

  Chronic cardio-metabolic disorders T2DM CKD CVD
Validation Developed Validation Developed Validation Developed Validation Developed
Men (N = 1310)
 Number of events at score category 261 166 102 68 173 120 59 37
 Number of high-risk populations 575 286 575 286 575 286 575 286
 Sensitivity, % 63.8 42.9 57.4 40.2 72.7 52.6 79.4 50.7
 Specificity, % 70.9 87 63.3 80.9 67.6 84.7 63 79.9
Women (N = 1960)
 Number of events at score category 646 329 189 85 542 304 49 32
 Number of high-risk populations 992 408 992 408 992 408 992 408
 Sensitivity, % 66.7 35.4 75.3 35.6 66.8 38.7 95.9 65.3
 Specificity, % 70.0 92.3 56.5 81.2 65.6 91.1 53.8 80.3
  1. T2DM: Type 2 diabetes; CKD; chronic kidney disease; CVD: cardiovascular disease
  2. The validation cut-off point: ≥ 25 for men and ≥ 19 for women
  3. The developed cut-off point: ≥ 35 for men and women
  4. The number of urban population of Tehran aged 28–85 year according to the Iranian census 2016: 7,214,301 men and 7,223,540 women
  5. Number at risk in Tehran according to the validation cut-off point: 3,166,583 men and 3,655,996 women
  6. Number at risk in Tehran according to the developed cut-off point: 1,587,146 men and 1,516,943 women