Skip to main content

Table 2 Model performance for 6-year and 9-year follow-up: Tehran lipid and glucose study

From: External validation of the European risk assessment tool for chronic cardio-metabolic disorders in a Middle Eastern population

  Chronic cardio-metabolic disorders T2DM CKD CVD
Men
 AUC (95% CI) *
  Original Follow-up 6y 0.72 (0.69–0.75) 0.65 (0.61–0.69) 0.76 (0.72–0.79) 0.73 (0.68–0.79)
  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 6y 0.72 (0.69–0.75) 0.65 (0.60–0.69) 0.76 (0.72–0.79) 0.73 (0.68–0.79)
  Original Follow-up 9y 0.71 (0.68–0.74) 0.66 (0.62–0.69) 0.71 (0.67–0.74) 0.71 (0.66–0.75)
  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 9y 0.71 (0.68–0.74) 0.66 (0.62–0.70) 0.71 (0.67–0.74) 0.71 (0.66–0.75)
 HL test
  Original Follow-up 6y 6.87 (p value = 0.55) 7.71 (p-value = 0.46) 12.82 (p-value = 0.12) 18 (p-value = 0.02)
  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 6y 7.21 (p-value = 0.51) 7.34 (p-value = 0.5) 13.53 (p-value = 0.09) 18.3 (p-value = 0.02)
  Original Follow-up 9y 10.7 (p-value = 0.22) 8.77 (p-value = 0.36) 13.21 (p-value = 0.1) 13.3 (p-value = 0.1)
  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 9y 11.0 (p-value = 0.2) 8.7 (p-value = 0.37) 12.54 (p-value = 0.13) 14.2 (p-value = 0.08)
Women
 AUC (95% CI)a
  Original Follow-up 6y 0.73 (0.71–0.76) 0.69 (0.66–0.73) 0.71 (0.69–0.74) 0.82 (0.78–0.86)
  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 6y 0.73 (0.71–0.75) 0.69 (0.66–0.73) 0.71 (0.69–0.73) 0.82 (0.78–0.86)
  Original Follow-up 9y 0.72 (0.70–0.75) 0.68 (0.65–0.72) 0.70 (0.68–0.72) 0.81 (0.76–0.85)
  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 9y 0.72 (0.70–0.75) 0.68 (0.65–0.71) 0.70 (0.68–0.73) 0.81 (0.77–0.85)
 HL test
  Original Follow-up 6y 5.62 (p-value = 0.69) 36.3 (p-value < 0.001) 10.1 (p-value = 0.26) 14.9 (p-value = 0.06)
  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 6y 5.62 (p-value = 0.69) 36.3 (p-value < 0.001) 10.1 (p-value = 0.26) 14.9 (p-value = 0.06)
  Original Follow-up 9y 6.4 (p-value = 0.6) 35.2 (p-value < 0.001) 8.19 (p-value = 0.41) 11.2 (p-value = 0.2)
  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 9y 6.4 (p-value = 0.6) 35.1 (p-value < 0.001) 8.19 (p-value = 0.41) 11.2 (p-value = 0.2)
  1. aWith 1000 Bootstrapping
  2. The recalibrated intercept for follow-up 6 years was estimated -1.51 for men and -2.71 for women; the recalibrated intercept for follow-up 9 years was estimated -0.71 for men and -1.89 for women
  3. The total sample size was 1314 for men (composite outcome = 589, T2DM = 252, CKD = 378, CVD = 120) and 1926 for women (composite outcome = 1125, T2DM = 315, CKD = 981, CVD = 80)
  4. AUC: area under the curve; CI confidence interval; HL; Hosmer–Lemeshow test; T2DM: type 2 diabetes; CKD: chronic kidney disease; CVD: cardiovascular disease