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Table 2 Model performance for 6-year and 9-year follow-up: Tehran lipid and glucose study

From: External validation of the European risk assessment tool for chronic cardio-metabolic disorders in a Middle Eastern population

 

Chronic cardio-metabolic disorders

T2DM

CKD

CVD

Men

 AUC (95% CI) *

  Original Follow-up 6y

0.72 (0.69–0.75)

0.65 (0.61–0.69)

0.76 (0.72–0.79)

0.73 (0.68–0.79)

  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 6y

0.72 (0.69–0.75)

0.65 (0.60–0.69)

0.76 (0.72–0.79)

0.73 (0.68–0.79)

  Original Follow-up 9y

0.71 (0.68–0.74)

0.66 (0.62–0.69)

0.71 (0.67–0.74)

0.71 (0.66–0.75)

  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 9y

0.71 (0.68–0.74)

0.66 (0.62–0.70)

0.71 (0.67–0.74)

0.71 (0.66–0.75)

 HL test

  Original Follow-up 6y

6.87 (p value = 0.55)

7.71 (p-value = 0.46)

12.82 (p-value = 0.12)

18 (p-value = 0.02)

  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 6y

7.21 (p-value = 0.51)

7.34 (p-value = 0.5)

13.53 (p-value = 0.09)

18.3 (p-value = 0.02)

  Original Follow-up 9y

10.7 (p-value = 0.22)

8.77 (p-value = 0.36)

13.21 (p-value = 0.1)

13.3 (p-value = 0.1)

  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 9y

11.0 (p-value = 0.2)

8.7 (p-value = 0.37)

12.54 (p-value = 0.13)

14.2 (p-value = 0.08)

Women

 AUC (95% CI)a

  Original Follow-up 6y

0.73 (0.71–0.76)

0.69 (0.66–0.73)

0.71 (0.69–0.74)

0.82 (0.78–0.86)

  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 6y

0.73 (0.71–0.75)

0.69 (0.66–0.73)

0.71 (0.69–0.73)

0.82 (0.78–0.86)

  Original Follow-up 9y

0.72 (0.70–0.75)

0.68 (0.65–0.72)

0.70 (0.68–0.72)

0.81 (0.76–0.85)

  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 9y

0.72 (0.70–0.75)

0.68 (0.65–0.71)

0.70 (0.68–0.73)

0.81 (0.77–0.85)

 HL test

  Original Follow-up 6y

5.62 (p-value = 0.69)

36.3 (p-value < 0.001)

10.1 (p-value = 0.26)

14.9 (p-value = 0.06)

  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 6y

5.62 (p-value = 0.69)

36.3 (p-value < 0.001)

10.1 (p-value = 0.26)

14.9 (p-value = 0.06)

  Original Follow-up 9y

6.4 (p-value = 0.6)

35.2 (p-value < 0.001)

8.19 (p-value = 0.41)

11.2 (p-value = 0.2)

  Intercept adjusted Follow-up 9y

6.4 (p-value = 0.6)

35.1 (p-value < 0.001)

8.19 (p-value = 0.41)

11.2 (p-value = 0.2)

  1. aWith 1000 Bootstrapping
  2. The recalibrated intercept for follow-up 6 years was estimated -1.51 for men and -2.71 for women; the recalibrated intercept for follow-up 9 years was estimated -0.71 for men and -1.89 for women
  3. The total sample size was 1314 for men (composite outcome = 589, T2DM = 252, CKD = 378, CVD = 120) and 1926 for women (composite outcome = 1125, T2DM = 315, CKD = 981, CVD = 80)
  4. AUC: area under the curve; CI confidence interval; HL; Hosmer–Lemeshow test; T2DM: type 2 diabetes; CKD: chronic kidney disease; CVD: cardiovascular disease