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Table 2 Regression coefficients for the five cases of Originator–Developer relationship and the two categories of response variables (phase-by-phase transition rates, sales): 1990–1999 (90), 2000–2013 (00)

From: The endless frontier? The recent increase of R&D productivity in pharmaceuticals

O\(\rightarrow\)D

Transition rates

Preclinical

Phase I

Phase II

Phase III

Registration

90

00

90

00

90

00

90

00

90

00

ni\(\rightarrow\)ph

− 0.107

− 0.009

− 0.047

0.020

− 0.079

0.024

− 0.067

0.011

− 0.109\(^{\dagger }\)

0.016

bt\(\rightarrow\)ph

− 0.044

− 0.029

− 0.005

− 0.048

− 0.009

− 0.042

− 0.080

0.001

− 0.067

0.027

ni\(\rightarrow\)ni

− 0.291\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.275\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.232\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.212\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.188\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.155\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.148\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.094\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.145\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.047\(^{\dagger }\)

ni\(\rightarrow\)bt

− 0.281\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.050

− 0.208\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.070

− 0.199\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.136\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.150\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.111\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.153\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.035

bt\(\rightarrow\)bt

− 0.261\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.083\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.047

− 0.081\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.327\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.111\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.197\(^{\dagger }\)

− 0.159

0.024

0.120

O\(\rightarrow\)D

Sales (log\(_{10}\)€)

Orphan (%)

90

00

90

00

ni\(\rightarrow\)ph

0.773\(^{\dagger }\)

0.123

9.3

9.3

bt\(\rightarrow\)ph

0.168

− 0.350\(^{\dagger }\)

10.3

14.2

ni\(\rightarrow\)ni

0.116

− 1.064\(^{\dagger }\)

11.3

10.1

ni\(\rightarrow\)bt

0.123

− 0.598\(^{\dagger }\)

8.1

13.4

bt\(\rightarrow\)bt

0.228

− 0.325\(^{\dagger }\)

6.7

14.6

  1. ni non-industrial, ph pharmaceutical, bt biotech.
  2. Significant at \(p<0.05\)