Table 1 Sources of data used for parameterisation of microsimulation model; reference numbers refer to main text

a. Consumption of barbecued food

 Barbecue occurrence

0 to 100

Derived from time-series analyses

 Frequency of barbecues per day and across year

Probability on given day of week 0–1 and overall frequency

Idealo Survey 2017 [19]

 Contamination of chicken meat

Probability 0–1

Food Standards Agency 2014 [23]

 Undercooking of barbecue food

Probability 0–1

Food Standards Agency 2014 [20]

 Population that consumes chicken

Proportion 0–1

Poultry Site 2018 [21]

b. Infection from chicken preparation and cooking at home

 Purchased chicken is contaminated

Probability 0–1

Food Standards Agency 2015 [22]

 Chicken sold that is skin

Proportion 0–1

Food Standards Agency 2017 [23]

 Frequency distribution of Campylobacter on chicken skin

Observed frequency distribution

Nauta, Jacobs-Reitsma [24]

c. Presence of Campylobacter in the countryside

 Herbage biomass sufficient for 10 days grazing by cows at 2.4 per ha

Gompertz modified biomass growth model

Barker et al. [25]

d. Visits to the countryside

 GEE based on temperature, rainfall, day of week, age, socio-economic class

Probability 0–1

MENE data [18] plus temperature, rainfall and day of week

e. Exposure to Campylobacter in the countryside

 Pathogen strain-type frequency distribution

Observed frequency distribution

Jones, Millman et al. [27]

 Campylobacter counts in sheep, cattle and wild bird faeces

Observed counts

Stanley, Wallace et al. [28]

 Transmission from footware to hands

Probability 0–1

Nauta, Jacobs-Reitsma [24]

f. Immune response after exposure to Campylobacter

 Human dose–response experiments

Dose–response curves

Black Levine et al. [13]

 Reduction in CFU after barbecue cooking

2.5× reduction

Food Standards Agency 2015 [22]